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Opinion / Columnist

An MDC govt around 2025

13 Aug 2020 at 07:24hrs | Views
WHILE the ruling party's nationalist project is by all means still holding forte, the centre is gradually disintegrating.

On the other hand, the centreleft MDC's democratic project has been bashed and dealt with harshly, but its agenda has undeniably penetrated and their game matured.

It would be naive, however, to think that the MDC Alliance will step into State House anytime soon, the walls of Jericho must first come down on their own, which is inevitable. Zanu-PF's stagnant egotism will implode it out of power, not the ballot.

Zanu-PF will not be pushed out of power by a supposed popular vote, it has been proven countless times that elections do not work in Zimbabwe.

Contrary to popular belief, elections are not rigged in Zimbabwe, the party and the security sector guarantors want a true measure of popular sentiment and to know the number of those who still vote for the party.

This is critical for the lifespan of the party. Elections are not rigged, party agents and international missions will be watching, but it is easier to cook the results instead.

Between the polling station based counting system and the tallying journey at the command centre, this is where the shock is, apart from a non-electronic and unaudited voters roll.

This is why the independent assessment numbers of the likes of MDC Alliance vice-president Tendai Biti and the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission do not tally at all, yet they emanate from the same polling stations.

The patronage system, the military dictate being the order of the day, and the deep liberation heritage obligation all stand in hurdle against the holding of free and fair elections, let alone a dignified handover of power.

Further, if there is anything that the nationalist establishment in Zimbabwe has learnt is that winds have and will blow, but they eventually die down. Ayikho into ozoyiyenza kithi ngezinto ezifana neTwitter! (You can't do anything to us using Twitter!)

The results were held and doctored in 2008 for a month against the constitutional demand, they got away with it. In the ensuing government of national unity, they got the Defence ministry, and demanded co-superintendence over the Home Affairs ministry as well, which is responsible for the police.

We ended up with two ministers of Home Affairs, they had their way. The much-hyped Kgalema Motlanthe commission of inquiry into the August 1, 2018 post-election violence fatal shootings made recommendations, it was all smoke and tax money in the drain. Today, most opposition leaders are on remand for all sorts of charges, civil activists, and journalists too.

Foreign embassies, a combative Economic Freedom Fighters, a reluctant African National Congress in South Africa, a bitter Ian Khama, a sober professor Description Patrick Loch Otieno Lumumba in Kenya, a whole United Nations, musicians and artists, are all speaking against the degeneration of human rights in Zimbabwe, but the powers are waiting for the dust to settle and it will, life will go on and COVID-19 will make headlines again not Zanu-PF.

Most analysts have predicted that the chances of the MDC Alliance ruling Zimbabwe are positioned mainly in three phenomena.

Firstly, that there must be a complete overhaul of the system to pave way for electoral, security sector and broadcasting reforms that will secure the people's vote.

These relate to an impartial and equal publicity on the airwaves, the security complex not affecting a preferred constitutional outcome, an audited electronic voters roll being made available to all parties, the printing and distribution of ballot papers being closely monitored and out of consensus, etc.

Secondly, analysts lament the need for the MDC Alliance to lead an aggressive campaign drive in the vast rural communities which is the make or break ground for a presidential win.

It does make sense to the extent that the majority of the population stay in the rural communities, and the voter turn-out is good owing to Zanu-PF's fascist idea of driving people out of homes to go and vote.

In the rural areas, voting is more than an obligation, it is security for your family's peace and survival in the aftermath. Thirdly, the opposition's own disservice of persistent splits has cost them a lot.

The big tent idea is noble, but the individual ambition of some of its bigwigs all but point to the possibility of imminent power struggles in the future. To what end will anyone want to overshadow the president and face of the party?

These observations are pragmatic, just not in Zimbabwe. How many years have passed while the politicians blabber about security, electoral and broadcasting re forms?

It is not easy work to convince the indoctrinated and petrified rural folk to vote away the party that has always donated shoes, food hampers and agricultural inputs come every election.

It is not easy to de-campaign a party whose chilling and deeprooted promise is that even if the opposition wins, it will not rule, the contest will go back to the gun, all this told to primitive rural societies who saw the brunt of the war.

In one of my visits to my rural area a few years back, I did not know whether to laugh or cry when one of the old ladies told me that the "ruling party told them they have a way to see whom you voted for through a satellite dish which is located somewhere in Harare!"

As things turned out, six people voted for the MDC Alliance in that ward and a meeting was called under a big tree near the community borehole, a witch hunt was launched to flush out those six voters.

The rural folk know too, that should the ruling party lose, it will be an uncontainable opposition party. Like it or not these are the political dynamics on the ground.

Here is my simple view open to scrutiny; the MDC Alliance will rule eventually due to Zanu-PF's own implosion, and/or incapacitation. This will not be a matter of weeks, or months, but in years to come. Since the admitted findings that some ruling party members were behind the July 31 protests, the dogs will lie for now, but nobody is off guard.

The G40 cabal is busy too, they want into the fray of things. For whatever common ground there is, fact or fiction, between the MDC Alliance and the G40, it is one of deceitful convenience only to be discarded with a trophy in hand.

A defeated and desperate G40 is trying to make a stunning comeback under the guise of reform, usurping the democratic reform agenda from the opposition, to render the MDC irrelevant.

The G40's regional diplomatic charm offensive is not to be taken lightly. The MDC must be wary to deal with that too.

Zanu-PF's war against the economy has remained undefeated for decades, national security is at all time low because of the goings on within a party now superior than government, its lieutenants have become warlords amongst and against themselves.

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Robert Sigauke is a political commentator. He writes here in his personal capacity.

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